This is the thirtieth time that the CyclOpe report has been published, this time by Philippe Chalmin, the group’s current director, and in particular with Les Échos. According to this publication, the commodity market is currently at half-mast and this will have far more disastrous consequences than we think
Grim balance sheet on commodity markets
For the first time since CyclOpe published its report, the results are rather gloomy. We can even go so far as to say that this is a great first in 30 years. The group’s director even mentioned his astonishment, stating that, objectively, he did not expect such a “collapse” for the year 2015.
It would even be possible for some markets to fall to the lowest level. If this is the case, this level will be maintained for a long time. Different raw materials could also be involved: energy (gas, coal or oil); metals and minerals or agricultural products (especially grains). Since the trend was already quite gloomy in 2014, it is highly unlikely that the trend will become highly bullish…
Very often, when there are negative market events, we tend to point the finger at China. This is not the case for the rather catastrophic situation of raw materials. According to the director of CyclOpe, the focus should be on producers and the strategies they have put in place. In particular, we could look at the big oil companies in Saudi Arabia, the mining companies in Australia or New Zealand or the dairy giants in Europe.
It turns out that the strategy of boosting production has not been successful. This only results in “wars” between operators. Worse still, the impacts are felt even outside the commodity markets. The consequences are being felt in some countries, particularly in Brazil and Africa, where countries have experienced significant growth, relying on raw materials. Today, they are in a delicate situation.
Faced with these various events, investors are becoming more reluctant. No one wants to make any more investments. In any case, producers are obliged to complete the various projects under way, particularly oil and mining projects, despite an overall situation that is not the most encouraging. But one thing is certain: there will undoubtedly be tension in the field of raw materials within 5 to 10 years.