According to the official report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global economic growth is expected to be slightly lower than expected. The economies of some countries are in recession. All this will undoubtedly have an impact on the stock markets…
A declining global economic growth
According to the IMF, global economic growth (that of its 189 member countries) will be lower than expected. The revision made by this organization is quite light, but should not be neglected: – 0.2 point for 2015 compared to the April 2015 forecast. The decline mainly concerns Anglo-Saxon countries. We can mention in particular the United States, Mexico and Brazil.
In Uncle Sam’s country, growth would be “only” 2.5% instead of the expected 3%. The particularly harsh climate of the first quarter is highlighted. In any case, the US economy should remain dynamic…
For Mexico, the projected growth is 3% instead of 3.6%, so it remains attractive. The situation is less favourable for Brazil, which is getting a little more bogged down in the recession since its GDP will not change, but will decline, and even more than expected. The decrease is 1.5% in 2015 instead of only 1%.
Everything is going rather well in the euro zone
On the euro zone side, the situation remains encouraging despite Greece’s setbacks. The forecasts remain the same: growth of 1.5% is expected for 2015 compared to 1.7% for 2016 (this is 0.1 point higher than the forecast). As far as France is concerned, things are not moving much and the country remains behind. The country’s growth is expected to be 1.2% and 1.5% in 2015 and 2016 respectively.
What about China?
The case of China is of particular interest to financial analysts. Indeed, over a one-month period, the Shanghai Stock Exchange recorded a dramatic drop of 30%. Nevertheless, the IMF did not consider it necessary to make an adjustment to the country’s growth forecasts. The country’s GDP is expected to increase by 6.8% and 6.3% for 2015 and the following year.
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